Sep 07, 2017 Thank you for the quick reply Romes. I have seen the edge calculator, I thought about using an overall percentage to work out fairness of my results, but unfortunately due to fluctuations in staking, I do not believe I could make this work accurately, for example, playing £100,000 worth of single deck, may show a profit (thus above expectation) but this could be down to pure luck in staking. Aug 13, 2019 Blackjack Appendix 3C lists exceptions to the single deck, dealer hits on soft 17, basic strategy based on the exact composition of the player's hand. Boss Media Appendix 1 has a composition dependent basic strategy for single-deck, dealer stands on soft 17, blackjack.
Basic strategy for single-deck games, S17
The table below illustrates basic strategy for S17 single-deck games. Doubling down is allowed on any 2 cards, double down after split is permitted (DAS) and there is no surrender. The dealer peeks. The casino has an estimated disadvantage of -0.15%.
Player's hand | Dealer's up-card | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | Ace | |
Hard hand totals | ||||||||||
5 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
6 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
7 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
8 | H | H | H | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
9 | D | D | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
10 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | H | H |
11 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
12 | H | H | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
13 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
14 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
15 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
16 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
17 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Soft hand totals | ||||||||||
A-2 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-3 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-4 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-5 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-6 | D | D | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-7 | S | D/S | D/S | D/S | D/S | S | S | H | H | S |
A-8 | S | S | S | S | D/S | S | S | S | S | S |
A-9 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Pairs | ||||||||||
2-2 | SP/H | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | H | H | H | H |
3-3 | SP/H | SP/H | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP/H | H | H | H |
4-4 | H | H | SP/H | SP/D | SP/D | H | H | H | H | H |
5-5 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | H | H |
6-6 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP/H | H | H | H | H |
7-7 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP/H | H | S | H |
8-8 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP |
9-9 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | S | SP | SP | S | S |
10-10 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Ace-Ace | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP |
Legend:
H – Hit
S – Stand
D – Double down (Hit, if not allowed)
SP – Split
D/S – Double down (Stand, if not allowed)
SP/H – Split if Double Down After Split is allowed (Hit, if not allowed)
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Basic strategy for single-deck games, H17
The table below illustrates basic strategy for H17 single-deck games. Doubling down is allowed on any 2 cards, double down after split is permitted (DAS) and there is no surrender. The dealer peeks. The casino has an estimated edge of 0.04%.
Player's hand | Dealer's up-card | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | Ace | |
Hard hand totals | ||||||||||
5 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
6 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
7 | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H | H |
8 | H | H | H | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
9 | D | D | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
10 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | H | H |
11 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
12 | H | H | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
13 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
14 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
15 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
16 | S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
17 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Soft hand totals | ||||||||||
A-2 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-3 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-4 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-5 | H | H | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-6 | D | D | D | D | D | H | H | H | H | H |
A-7 | S | D/S | D/S | D/S | D/S | S | S | H | H | H |
A-8 | S | S | S | S | D/S | S | S | S | S | S |
A-9 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Pairs | ||||||||||
2-2 | SP/H | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | H | H | H | H |
3-3 | SP/H | SP/H | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP/H | H | H | H |
4-4 | H | H | SP/H | SP/D | SP/D | H | H | H | H | H |
5-5 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | H | H |
6-6 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP/H | H | H | H | H |
7-7 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP/H | H | S | H |
8-8 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP |
9-9 | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | S | SP | SP | S | S |
10-10 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
Ace-Ace | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP | SP |
Legend:
H – Hit
S – Stand
D – Double down (Hit, if not allowed)
SP – Split
D/S – Double down (Stand, if not allowed)
SP/H – Split if Double Down After Split is allowed (Hit, if not allowed)
Rules tend to vary from casino to casino but the strategies displayed in these tables are applicable to all circumstances, with little adaptation.
Slowing Down Blackjack Game
Money Management in Blackjack
Single Deck Blackjack Basic Strategy
Double Deck Blackjack Strategy
Shoe Games Blackjack Strategy
For example, we said that D stands for double down (or Hit, if not allowed). If you are playing a D9 game where you can double down only on hands with value of 9, 10 or 11, you won't be able to double on an 8 versus a dealer's 6 like the table says. Instead, as the legend proposes, you should hit it.
Using these tables is completely straightforward – check the value of your hand, check what up-card the dealer holds and look where in the table the two conditions coincide.
Also, these rules apply to whatever number of cards your hand consists of. If, for example, you have a hard 7 versus the dealer's 7, according to the table, you should hit the hand. If you draw a 4 for a new hard 11, you should next double down, as the table shows.
Hard hands greater than 17 are played like a hard 17 – stand on all.
Rules:
Single Deck
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Dealer does not peek for BJ. All bets lost for dealer BJ
No double after split
Only split once
No surrender
Player may draw to split aces
What I am looking for is something like on the Wizard of Odds site under /games/blackjack/appendix/5/) however, the rules based in that chart do not reflect the specifics of the game I am looking for.
I play a lot of single-deck to those rules and would like to be able to asses how 'fair' my results are.
Many thanks in advance!
With the rules you've given, assuming the game is 3:2 for blackjack, I'm showing a House Edge of about .10%. A really good game rule wise, but the penetration and the heat would be what I'd worry most about if you're looking to count at this game. Also, if it's online, lol. =)
Next, if you're looking for a specific card to card and hand breakdown of expected return very similar to Appendix 5, I'd imagine that would take someone a bit more work to produce. Also, while the percentages are in no way 'exact'... 'most' of those percentages won't change that much from Appendix 5 (some will due to the DAS, etc, but not a mountain of a change all the same). Perhaps PM to the Wizard requesting said information, as I'm not sure how he programmed it and it may or may not be easy for him to change rules and provide an additional result with your rule set.
I have seen the edge calculator, I thought about using an overall percentage to work out fairness of my results, but unfortunately due to fluctuations in staking, I do not believe I could make this work accurately, for example, playing £100,000 worth of single deck, may show a profit (thus above expectation) but this could be down to pure luck in staking alterations between times of playing. If that makes sense!
What I want to do is assess each time I play, and I can record each particular game through automation, and then establish whether or not after each session, how fair were the results. Obviously the aim would be to combine with multiple sessions to garner the greater picture, regardless of P&L.
E.G, I was dealt XX. Dealer has X. Therefore upon expectation of perfect strategy play from this point, I should win Y%.
The link I tried to post (but I am not allowed) is the wizardofodds URL, followed by /games/blackjack/appendix/5
How do i message the Wizard himself?
TIA
OriginalSD = 1.15*10 = 11.5
EV(50k hands) = (10*50,000)*(-.001) = -$500
SD(50k hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 11.5 = $2571.48... 2SD = $5,142.97... 3SD = $7,714.44
So you could still be up ~$7200 after 50k hands due to natural variance. In order to prove you're down (since it's such a low HE game) you're going to have to play a lot more hands.
EV(200k hands) = (10*200,000)*(-.001) = -$2,000
SD(200k hands) = Sqrt(200,000) * 11.5 = $5,142.96.... 2SD = $10,285.91... 3SD = $15,428.88
While it's true you would get your answers quicker via exact hand comparisons and expected returns, you'd still have to blast through hundreds of thousands of hands either way... This isn't something I'd recommend checking on, as you surely could put that amount of hours in to something more productive in either gambling/AP or even with your life. I'd just put out a thread with your individual results to the named site and say while you don't have proof you feel the game is not the return they show. Then move on with your life to the next thing.
You can PM anyone by clicking their name in a thread and clicking 'New Message' on their profile.
Yes, it is more about assessing the fairness of the results over a long period of time. Playing 100s of thousands of hands is not a problem in terms of time or productivity for me, nor is expediting the automation of recording each hand and then therefore recording the data. I just need the expected return per hand, ideally.
I am interested to hear your take on using the SD, i suppose as a basic approach this could work. Although, as mentioned I would like more accuracy, because stakes can vary from anywhere around the £40quid to the £200 mark. Again, a significant range. Would you say this would affect the results significantly the way you calculate it above?
Thanks
I'll still say again, I don't think this is worth the negative EV to find out. Hell ,with an average flat bet I showed above you could be within 3SD and still be down $20k... Thus you could lose $20k and not have proven anything. There's a lot more you can do with your time and money!
https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/casino-bar/
Romes is totally right, and you can't really prove anything based on just your 'results' unless you play billions of hands. You might show a huge loss and it can be explained by variance, it's not worth it. But from the study I assume you can gauge whether a game is fair or not without playing that much, by looking at specific occurrences. It is beyond my statistical expertise and I believe it would take some effort.
If you want to do that, all the power to you!
I suppose recording individually and taking 'snap' samples could work over a long time to see how we get on (looking at the methods of the Wizard on that link r.e the Casino Bar Blackjack,
I think the blackjack hand calculator on the site can give me what I need for now - if I set the parameters to the specific game it does tell me what the probabilities are per hand each time.
I appreciate all your guys time and ideas on this subject
In a hand where a split is the optimum play, I have an expectation. Let us say I pull A,A vs Dealer 10 and I split them.
According to the calculator the Expectation is +0.104690.
However, what facets is this probability derived from? Especially, let us say in the situation, whereby I win one hand and lose on the other, meaning net position is no gain or no loss. If recording the outcomes this way in attempt to find fair results, would you write this as 1 win and 1 loss? Or as 1 push?
Similarly, if you won one hand and pushed another. Again, net position is a gain, but not by the expected amount (because you are expected to win both hands), so would you record as 1 win and 1 push? But the win is not a full win, if you get my jist.
Am i trying to establish how the Expectation of +0.104690 covers this possibilities....
Many thanks in advance